Building on earlier EPBD.wise analysis of selected focus countries, the report broadens the scope to the full EU, using the Invert building stock model to simulate renovation trajectories under five policy scenarios, from stringent regulatory packages to purely market-based instruments. A clustering analysis groups the 27 Member States into eight clusters based on climate conditions, primary energy factors, and renovation rates, with six representative countries selected for comparison: Ireland, Italy, Czechia, Germany, Lithuania and Croatia.

The modelling confirms that regulatory standards, particularly when combined with a fossil boiler ban and economic incentives, are effective in driving non-residential buildings below the 2030 and 2033 MEPS thresholds. For residential buildings, market-based instruments alone are insufficient: mandatory performance standards are necessary to meet interim targets and deliver long-term decarbonisation.

Four policy priorities emerge: investing in robust building stock data; designing MEPS as part of an integrated policy package; protecting vulnerable households through targeted financing; and embedding Article 9 trajectories within National Building Renovation Plans. Good practice examples from across the EU demonstrate that effective implementation is both technically feasible and politically actionable, provided regulatory ambition is matched by adequate data infrastructure and institutional capacity.