The Italian Buildings Climate Tracker (ITA BCT) is the first-ever index designed to assess Italy’s progress in decarbonising its building stock. Developed by BPIE, it evaluates four key indicators: CO2 emissions, final energy consumption, renewable energy share, and investment in building renovation. The ITA BCT tracks progress since 2015, providing essential insights into Italy’s progress towards meeting its climate neutrality goals for 2030 and 2050.

Main findings:

• CO2 emissions: A reduction of 12.4% by 2022, falling short of the 14.3% target, leading to an additional 1.4 MtCO2 emissions released into the atmosphere.
• Final energy consumption: A 3% decrease achieved, well below the 8.1% target, indicating slow progress in reducing energy use in buildings.
• Renewable energy share: Only a 1.9 percentage point increase, far short of the 9.3 percentage point target. This reflects a slow transition to renewable energy, particularly for heating and cooling.
• Investment in renovation: Investments surged to €97.7 billion in 2022, more than double the required €45 billion. However, the impact on energy consumption and emissions remains unclear, with the long-term effects still to be fully monitored.

What the Data Reveals:

Progress since 2015: Italy has made some progress in decarbonising its buildings since 2015, but it is still far from achieving its targets. The decarbonisation pace required to align with climate neutrality was 1.8 points per year up to 2015. From 2022 onwards, the necessary progress rate has increased to 2.5 points annually to stay on track for the 2030 target. This indicates an urgent need for stronger and more rapid action in the coming years.

Alignment with 2050 climate neutrality goals: While the EU plans for a 60% reduction in building sector CO2 emissions by 2030, Italy’s target is significantly lower at only 31%. This means Italy is banking on a large portion of emissions reductions occurring after 2030. This slower timeline may lead to more severe environmental and economic risks, with the need for urgent action before 2030 to meet the 2050 climate neutrality goal.

Required improvements for 2050 goals: To align with its climate goals, Italy needs to focus on four main areas:

1. Immediate CO2 reduction: Faster action is required to avoid the release of extra CO2 emissions before 2030, which would result in higher future mitigation and adaptation costs.
2. Renewable energy expansion: A faster rollout of renewable energy sources, especially for heating and cooling in buildings, is crucial to reduce dependency on natural gas and improve energy security.
3. Targeted renovation investments: Renovation efforts must be directed at the worst-performing buildings, where the most significant energy savings and emissions reductions can be achieved, while also addressing energy poverty and improving health and comfort.
4. Timely implementation of the EPBD: Effective transposition and implementation of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) will create the necessary conditions for a faster, more effective decarbonisation of Italy’s building stock by 2050.

Conclusions: Despite increased investments in renovation, such as those driven by the Superbonus scheme, Italy’s building sector is not on track to meet its 2030 and 2050 climate targets. While some progress has been made, the current trajectory is insufficient. Accelerating the pace of decarbonisation, increasing renewable energy deployment, and targeting renovations at the least efficient buildings are critical steps toward ensuring that Italy can meet its long-term climate goals.